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• Dollar Unchanged on the Day as Risk Pressures Build in the Background
• Euro Stability Improved by Plans to Create a European Monetary Fund
• British Pound Struggles to Find a Firm Footing through a Round of Notable Event Risk
• Japanese Yen Finds Little Guidance on Risk Trends but the Economic Outlook Develops
Student’s commments:
It is worth noting that aside from a few standout correlations (negative and positive) amongst the majors; the relationships in price action across the majors has generally dissipated in recent weeks and months. This is an unmistakable consequence of tempered volatility and curbed risk appetite trends.
There was relatively little for fundamental traders to work with Monday; but that wouldn’t prevent oil from pushing a new eight-week high and closing the gap to the $84 swing high set on January 11th. At this point, the bullish bias can sustain itself on sheer momentum as long as there isn’t an active force to fight the market’s climb.
Expect the EURGBP to test 9200. Although far from clear, there is little evidence to suggest a reversal lower in the Yen crosses near term (yet).
The Euro has traded lower on the day despite growing confidence that Greece will be able to correct their deficit issues and measures are being discussed to prevent a repeat amongst other member nations. A European monetary fund is being proposed by the E.C. to act as a lender of last resort, but opposition is already mounting against the proposal which is giving it little weight.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is widely anticipated to keep the benchmark interest rate at 2.50% this week in an effort to balance the downside risks for the economy, and comments following the rate decision are likely to stoke increased volatility in the exchange rate as investors weigh the prospects for future policy.