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Student’s Comment:
So I have started a trade as shown, where I entered short at 1.5021, I would appreciate your opinion.
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The incredible volatility and unconfirmed breakouts that proliferated last week has been tempered but not absolutely reversed. The risk of developing new breakouts and reviving trends is still extraordinarily high. For range traders, the best option is to stay out of the market all together or alter the time frames on trade setups.
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Speculators (red) have started to cover US dollar short positions (see the red line turning up). This warns of a trend change towards US dollar strength.
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• Australian Dollar Up Ahead of Expected RBA Rate Hike - Statement Will Determine Price Action
• Euro Shrugs Off First Increase in Annual CPI in 7 Months
• Canadian Dollar Gains as Q3 GDP Rises for First Time in a Year
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Kiwi Dollar Refuses to go Down Under—Yet
Last week, the NZD/USD fell 526 pips from its high of .7521 down to a low of .6995. We had not see that level since the end of October. However, this steep sell off from the .7500 high seems to hit a major road block near the .7000 area.
Dollar Bulls may be in for a surprise as this pair continues to defy gravity and the bearish sentiment.
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Our latest monthly outlook suggests no change in short rates for the next six months and only a slight increase in yield for the benchmark 10-year Treasury rate. For the time being the risks remain on the upside, however, for long rates as volatility around expectations on the dollar and Federal deficits suggest a continued cautious position on Treasuries.
John E. Silvia, Ph.D. Chief Economist, Wachovia
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The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely anticipated to raise the benchmark interest rate by another 25bp in December to 3.75% as the T economy skirts the global recession, and expectations for higher borrowing costs may continue to drive the exchange rate towards parity as investors speculate the central bank to tighten policy throughout the first-half of 2010.
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US indices traded lower only briefly in thin trade again after the open on the back of renewed risk aversion coupled with year end flows. Reports of improved Black Friday sales did little to buoy retailers; with most retailers flat on the day ……
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After suffering a wave of volatility – the level of which we haven’t seen in many months – it seems the currency market is tempering and price action is going back to level of normalcy. However, the incredible price action that was seen through the market shock cannot be discounted for its lasting effects.
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