Looking across the various markets Monday, it was clear that speculative interests were relatively subdued. This alludes to the presence of big-ticket fundamental concerns (the potential Greece default and steady withdrawal of government stimulus) that are both preventing another build up in speculative positions and found investors seeking out further developments in these matters that could define the future trading environment.

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Several Yen crosses have rolled over in what could prove to be important secondary tops.

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There are fundamental links underlying the market which wax and wane depending on what the prevailing concerns amongst investors. For example, one of the most prevalent trends of the past 18 months has been the health and direction of underlying risk appetite. With the 2009 rebound in speculative interests, the market would ultimately rank each currency for its potential for return. The greater the divergence in yields, the more attractive the pair was with traders hungry for return.

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Completion of a bailout package for Greece could generate Euro support and threaten our trade. However, there is a growing concern that measures taken will fall considerably short of solving the problems for the region, a weak attempt may be frowned upon by markets and lead to weakness for the single currency.

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A brief bout of EUR/USD support may not last long as concerns are growing that the troubles in Greece will soon become a contagion for the region. As European leaders attempt to construct a bailout package, fears are emerging that the scope of the aid will fail to cure the country’s ills and at the same time set a dangerous precedent.

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A sideways correction that extends into the second week of March may be underway in the EURUSD. Range strategies are worth a look in this environment.

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